Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.0% - 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Fair Value | ¥5.78 - ¥10.70 | ¥7.34 |
| Upside | -33.4% - 23.3% | -15.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| Revenue | 667 | 717 | 743 | 757 | 773 | 788 | |
| % Growth | 14.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 143 | 160 | 165 | 169 | 172 | 175 | |
| % of Revenue | 21.5% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 160 | 165 | 169 | 172 | 175 | 175 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (43) | (45) | (46) | (47) | (48) | (88) | |
| EBIT | 116 | 120 | 123 | 125 | 128 | 87 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (16) | (17) | (17) | (18) | (18) | (12) | |
| NOPAT | 96 | 100 | 104 | 106 | 108 | 110 | 75 |
| Capital Expenditures | (67) | (84) | (87) | (89) | (91) | (93) | (93) |
| NWC Investment | 19 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| (+) D&A | 32 | 43 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 88 |
| Free Cash Flow | 79 | 70 | 67 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 80 |
| % Growth | -12% | -5% | -2% | 2% | 2% | 17% | |