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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.2x - 2.4x | 2.3x |
| Fair Value | ¥12.92 - ¥14.53 | ¥13.70 |
| Upside | 23.7% - 39.1% | 31.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 1,921 | 2,366 | 2,803 | 3,153 | 3,390 | 3,509 | 3,579 | 3,650 | 3,723 | 3,798 | 3,874 |
| % Growth | -1.7% | 23.2% | 18.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 103 | 413 | 559 | 707 | 794 | 822 | 839 | 855 | 873 | 890 | 908 |
| % of Revenue | 5.4% | 17.4% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | ||
| EBITDA | 413 | 559 | 707 | 794 | 822 | 839 | 855 | 873 | 890 | 908 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (219) | (306) | (344) | (370) | (383) | (390) | (398) | (406) | (414) | (423) | |
| EBIT | 194 | 253 | 363 | 425 | 439 | 448 | 457 | 466 | 476 | 485 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (37) | (48) | (69) | (81) | (84) | (85) | (87) | (89) | (90) | (92) | |
| NOPAT | 33 | 157 | 205 | 294 | 344 | 356 | 363 | 370 | 378 | 385 | 393 |
| Capital Expenditures | (293) | (268) | (316) | (356) | (382) | (396) | (378) | (385) | (386) | (383) | (385) |
| NWC Investment | 6 | (86) | (85) | (68) | (46) | (23) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (15) |
| (+) D&A | 62 | 219 | 306 | 344 | 370 | 383 | 390 | 398 | 406 | 414 | 423 |
| Free Cash Flow | (191) | 21 | 110 | 215 | 286 | 320 | 362 | 370 | 384 | 402 | 416 |
| % Growth | 415% | 95% | 33% | 12% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | ||