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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.8x |
| Fair Value | ¥5.42 - ¥6.37 | ¥5.90 |
| Upside | 5.3% - 23.6% | 14.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Vipshop Holdings Limited | VIPS | NYSE:VIPS |
| Liqun Commercial Group Co.,Ltd. | 601366 | SHSE:601366 |
| MINISO Group Holding Limited | 9896 | SEHK:9896 |
| Hefei Department Store Group Co.,Ltd | 417 | SZSE:000417 |
| Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade (Group) Co., Ltd. | 601086 | SHSE:601086 |
| Rainbow Digital Commercial Co., Ltd. | 2419 | SZSE:002419 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| VIPS | 601366 | 9896 | 417 | 601086 | 2419 | |||
| NYSE:VIPS | SHSE:601366 | SEHK:9896 | SZSE:000417 | SHSE:601086 | SZSE:002419 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.1% | -7.6% | 12.6% | -8.9% | -22.8% | -9.5% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -2.5% | -2.8% | 23.3% | 1.9% | -7.9% | -1.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.9% | -4.3% | 11.3% | 6.9% | -21.9% | -2.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 12.0% | 1.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.1% | 2.3% | 20.2% | 3.5% | 16.7% | 1.9% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.5% | 4.1% | 18.6% | 3.8% | 11.4% | 0.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 4.0% | 18.6% | 4.1% | 11.4% | 0.6% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.17x | 1.50x | 1.88x | 0.56x | 6.05x | 0.86x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 2.0x | 37.7x | 10.1x | 13.6x | 52.9x | 155.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.44x | 0.58x | 2.09x | 0.71x | 7.36x | 0.51x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.17x | 1.50x | 6.05x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.14x | 0.89x | 1.25x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.90x | 0.95x | 1.00x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 11,786 | 11,786 | 11,786 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 10,653 | 11,214 | 11,775 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,132) | (4,132) | (4,132) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,521 | 7,082 | 7,643 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,168.8 | 1,168.8 | 1,168.8 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.58 | 6.06 | 6.54 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.58 | 6.06 | 6.54 | 5.15 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 8.3% | 17.7% | 27.0% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VIPS | 601366 | 9896 | 417 | 601086 | 2419 | |
| Enterprise Value | 18,235 | 11,034 | 28,417 | 3,840 | 4,584 | 10,151 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 28,225 | 1,163 | 6,697 | 1,419 | 910 | 3,087 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5,358 | 26 | 302 | 2,218 | 337 | 5,574 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,049) | (7,907) | (3,110) | (1,529) | (259) | (12,786) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,580) | (30) | (41) | (1,064) | 0 | (6) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 47,188 | 4,286 | 32,266 | 4,882 | 5,573 | 6,020 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 515.9 | 913.9 | 1,132.3 | 779.9 | 660.3 | 1,168.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 91.47 | 4.69 | 28.50 | 6.26 | 8.44 | 5.15 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 7.28 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.56 | 4.69 | 30.35 | 6.26 | 8.44 | 5.15 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 7.28 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |