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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Ps Multiple | 2.8x - 3.0x | 2.9x |
| Selected Fwd Ps Multiple | 2.0x - 2.2x | 2.1x |
| Fair Value | ¥7.17 - ¥7.93 | ¥7.55 |
| Upside | -5.9% - 4.0% | -0.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shentong Metro Co.,Ltd. | 60,083,400.0% | SHSE:600834 |
| China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. | 121,300.0% | SZSE:001213 |
| China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd | 60,012,500.0% | SHSE:600125 |
| GuangDong GenSho Logistics Co.,LTD | 60,381,300.0% | SHSE:603813 |
| Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. | 262,700.0% | SZSE:002627 |
| Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 235,700.0% | SZSE:002357 |
| Select Price / LTM Sales Ratio | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 600834 | 1213 | 600125 | 603813 | 2627 | 2357 | |||
| SHSE:600834 | SZSE:001213 | SHSE:600125 | SHSE:603813 | SZSE:002627 | SZSE:002357 | |||
| Historical Sales Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.3% | 6.3% | -1.2% | -10.9% | -4.5% | -2.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 18.9% | 8.1% | -1.1% | -0.3% | -6.4% | 11.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | -26.2% | -45.7% | 2.0% | ||
| Historical Net Income Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.7% | -4.4% | 4.9% | 11.9% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 17.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 0.2% | 8.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | -1.7% | 8.1% | 17.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -7.2% | 15.7% | 9.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 36.7x | 9.9x | 6.0x | 50.1x | 14.2x | 14.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 6.6x | 1.7x | 0.5x | 4.3x | 4.3x | 2.8x | ||
| LTM P/E Ratio | 74.9x | 29.8x | 18.5x | -59.6x | 27.4x | 29.2x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark LTM P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 4.3x | 6.6x | |||||
| Historical LTM P/S Ratio | 2.1x | 2.8x | 3.6x | |||||
| Selected Price / Sales Multiple | 2.8x | 2.9x | 3.0x | |||||
| (x) LTM Sales | 864 | 864 | 864 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,380 | 2,506 | 2,631 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 313.5 | 313.5 | 313.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 7.59 | 7.99 | 8.39 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 7.59 | 7.99 | 8.39 | 7.62 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -0.4% | 4.9% | 10.1% | |||||
| Equity Value | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600834 | 1213 | 600125 | 603813 | 2627 | 2357 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,881 | 18,222 | 7,611 | 1,479 | 3,761 | 2,389 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 477.4 | 4,444.4 | 1,305.5 | 104.2 | 699.0 | 313.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 8.13 | 4.10 | 5.83 | 14.19 | 5.38 | 7.62 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.13 | 4.10 | 5.83 | 14.19 | 5.38 | 7.62 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |