Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.5% - 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Fair Value | ¥3.37 - ¥6.21 | ¥4.32 |
| Upside | -6.3% - 72.6% | 20.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 4,007 | 4,308 | 4,459 | 4,548 | 4,639 | 4,731 | |
| % Growth | 14.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 444 | 450 | 465 | 475 | 484 | 494 | |
| % of Revenue | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 450 | 465 | 475 | 484 | 494 | 494 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (150) | (155) | (159) | (162) | (165) | (166) | |
| EBIT | 300 | 310 | 316 | 323 | 329 | 328 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (51) | (53) | (54) | (55) | (56) | (56) | |
| NOPAT | 258 | 249 | 257 | 262 | 268 | 273 | 272 |
| Capital Expenditures | (117) | (159) | (165) | (168) | (172) | (175) | (175) |
| NWC Investment | (64) | (39) | (19) | (11) | (12) | (12) | (36) |
| (+) D&A | 134 | 150 | 155 | 159 | 162 | 165 | 166 |
| Free Cash Flow | 211 | 201 | 228 | 241 | 246 | 251 | 227 |
| % Growth | -5% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | -10% | |