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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.3x - 1.4x | 1.3x |
| Fair Value | ¥14.32 - ¥15.93 | ¥15.10 |
| Upside | 77.9% - 97.9% | 87.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 7,555 | 9,247 | 10,869 | 11,129 | 11,351 | 11,578 | 11,810 | 12,046 | 12,287 | 12,533 | 12,783 |
| % Growth | -11.3% | 22.4% | 17.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,220 | 1,513 | 1,700 | 1,780 | 1,815 | 1,852 | 1,889 | 1,927 | 1,965 | 2,004 | 2,045 |
| % of Revenue | 16.2% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | ||
| EBITDA | 1,513 | 1,700 | 1,780 | 1,815 | 1,852 | 1,889 | 1,927 | 1,965 | 2,004 | 2,045 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (628) | (601) | (588) | (600) | (612) | (624) | (636) | (649) | (662) | (675) | |
| EBIT | 885 | 1,099 | 1,192 | 1,216 | 1,240 | 1,265 | 1,290 | 1,316 | 1,342 | 1,369 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (142) | (176) | (191) | (195) | (198) | (202) | (206) | (211) | (215) | (219) | |
| NOPAT | 591 | 744 | 923 | 1,001 | 1,021 | 1,042 | 1,063 | 1,084 | 1,106 | 1,128 | 1,150 |
| Capital Expenditures | (739) | (207) | (230) | (195) | (211) | (215) | (207) | (211) | (211) | (210) | (210) |
| NWC Investment | (227) | 401 | 384 | 62 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |
| (+) D&A | 517 | 628 | 601 | 588 | 600 | 612 | 624 | 636 | 649 | 662 | 675 |
| Free Cash Flow | 141 | 1,566 | 1,678 | 1,456 | 1,463 | 1,492 | 1,534 | 1,565 | 1,601 | 1,638 | 1,674 |
| % Growth | 7% | -13% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ||