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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.5x | 1.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥18.03 - ¥20.38 | ¥19.17 |
| Upside | -2.6% - 10.0% | 3.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 5,933 | 7,408 | 8,619 | 9,792 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 |
| % Growth | -1.0% | 24.9% | 16.3% | 13.6% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 337 | 468 | 559 | 823 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 |
| % of Revenue | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | ||
| EBITDA | 468 | 559 | 823 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (157) | (171) | (230) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | |
| EBIT | 312 | 389 | 593 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (44) | (54) | (83) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | |
| NOPAT | 168 | 268 | 334 | 510 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 |
| Capital Expenditures | (231) | (139) | (152) | (163) | (500) | (500) | (388) | (388) | (388) | (388) | (388) |
| NWC Investment | 8 | (204) | (168) | (162) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 141 | 157 | 171 | 230 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 |
| Free Cash Flow | 87 | 81 | 185 | 415 | 245 | 234 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 |
| % Growth | 128% | 124% | -41% | -5% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||