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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 27.0x - 29.9x | 28.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 27.9x - 30.8x | 29.3x |
| Fair Value | ¥7.26 - ¥8.04 | ¥7.65 |
| Upside | -22.6% - -14.3% | -18.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd | 600106 | SHSE:600106 |
| Zhuhai Winbase International Chemical Tank Terminal Co.,Ltd | 2492 | SZSE:002492 |
| Guangzhou Hangxin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. | 300424 | SZSE:300424 |
| China Railway Materials Company Limited | 927 | SZSE:000927 |
| TangShan Port Group Co.,Ltd | 601000 | SHSE:601000 |
| Sichuan Haite High-tech Co.,Ltd | 2023 | SZSE:002023 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600106 | 2492 | 300424 | 927 | 601000 | 2023 | ||
| SHSE:600106 | SZSE:002492 | SZSE:300424 | SZSE:000927 | SHSE:601000 | SZSE:002023 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -16.4% | 10.5% | 22.2% | -17.2% | 1.5% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -21.7% | -1.8% | NM- | -29.3% | 4.9% | 11.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -12.5% | -37.7% | 47.1% | -28.5% | -1.4% | 69.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 65.7% | 30.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 28.9% | 10.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 69.7% | 34.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 34.1% | 15.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 62.3% | 29.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 34.3% | 16.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 61.8% | 20.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 34.3% | 16.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 27.60x | 4.11x | 2.61x | 0.33x | 3.19x | 5.73x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 41.7x | 9.9x | 32.0x | 16.7x | 6.8x | 17.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 44.7x | 20.0x | 60.7x | 25.1x | 9.3x | 34.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 25.1x | 60.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -172.9x | 75.9x | 191.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 27.0x | 28.5x | 29.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 207 | 207 | 207 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,591 | 5,885 | 6,180 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (121) | (121) | (121) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,470 | 5,764 | 6,058 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 740.9 | 740.9 | 740.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 7.38 | 7.78 | 8.18 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 7.38 | 7.78 | 8.18 | 9.38 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.3% | -17.1% | -12.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600106 | 2492 | 300424 | 927 | 601000 | 2023 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,161 | 1,493 | 4,136 | 12,711 | 18,271 | 7,071 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,570 | 616 | 218 | 4,367 | 4,790 | 512 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,531 | 218 | 46 | 709 | 3,814 | 1,589 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,538) | (304) | (996) | (1,612) | (0) | (2,221) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (17) | (28) | (1,109) | (1,571) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,725 | 2,005 | 3,375 | 15,065 | 25,304 | 6,949 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,329.0 | 405.0 | 245.4 | 6,050.4 | 5,925.9 | 740.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.06 | 4.95 | 13.75 | 2.49 | 4.27 | 9.38 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.06 | 4.95 | 13.75 | 2.49 | 4.27 | 9.38 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |