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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Dividend | ¥0.11 - ¥0.13 | ¥0.12 |
| Adjusted Dividend Yield | 2.7% - 3.1% | 2.9% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.3% | 3.0% |
| Discount Rate | 8.9% - 6.9% | 7.9% |
| Fair Value | ¥1.84 - ¥3.62 | ¥2.54 |
| Upside | -54.8% - -11.3% | -37.7% |
| Calculate Adjusted Dividend | ||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Latest | Notes | ||||||
| Net Income To Common | 611 | |||||||
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid | (258) | |||||||
| (=) Cash Retained | 353 | 57.8% | ||||||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | % of net income needed for future growth | ||||
| Adj Net Income | 611 | 611 | 611 | |||||
| (=) Cash Required | 122 | 76 | 46 | |||||
| Cash Retained | 353 | 353 | 353 | |||||
| (-) Cash Required | (122) | (76) | (46) | |||||
| (=) Excess Retained | 231 | 277 | 307 | |||||
| (/) FX Rate Adjustment | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||||
| (=) Excess Retained (CNY) | 231 | 277 | 307 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,444.4 | 4,444.4 | 4,444.4 | |||||
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | |||||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | |||||
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | |||||
| Adjusted Dividend | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |||||
| Sensitivity Analysis | ||||||||
| Adjusted Dividend | 0.12 | |||||||
| Cost of Equity | ||||||||
| Growth Rate | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | |||
| 1.0% | 2.07 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.65 | 1.54 | |||
| 2.0% | 2.52 | 2.28 | 2.09 | 1.92 | 1.78 | |||
| 3.0% | 3.20 | 2.83 | 2.54 | 2.30 | 2.11 | |||
| 4.0% | 4.35 | 3.71 | 3.23 | 2.86 | 2.57 | |||
| 5.0% | 6.73 | 5.32 | 4.39 | 3.74 | 3.26 | |||