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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 13.8x - 15.8x | 14.8x |
| Fair Value | ¥4.42 - ¥5.09 | ¥4.75 |
| Upside | 7.9% - 24.2% | 15.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 10,682 | 11,483 | 11,885 | 12,122 | 12,365 | 12,612 | 12,864 | 13,122 | 13,384 | 13,652 | 13,925 |
| % Growth | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,293 | 1,443 | 1,493 | 1,523 | 1,553 | 1,584 | 1,616 | 1,649 | 1,681 | 1,715 | 1,749 |
| % of Revenue | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| EBITDA | 1,443 | 1,493 | 1,523 | 1,553 | 1,584 | 1,616 | 1,649 | 1,681 | 1,715 | 1,749 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (730) | (756) | (771) | (786) | (802) | (818) | (834) | (851) | (868) | (885) | |
| EBIT | 712 | 737 | 752 | 767 | 782 | 798 | 814 | 830 | 847 | 864 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (178) | (184) | (188) | (192) | (196) | (200) | (204) | (208) | (212) | (216) | |
| NOPAT | 483 | 534 | 553 | 564 | 575 | 587 | 599 | 611 | 623 | 635 | 648 |
| Capital Expenditures | (753) | (800) | (828) | (845) | (862) | (879) | (862) | (868) | (870) | (866) | (868) |
| NWC Investment | (234) | (154) | (77) | (46) | (47) | (47) | (48) | (49) | (50) | (51) | (52) |
| (+) D&A | 649 | 730 | 756 | 771 | 786 | 802 | 818 | 834 | 851 | 868 | 885 |
| Free Cash Flow | 145 | 310 | 403 | 444 | 453 | 462 | 506 | 528 | 554 | 586 | 613 |
| % Growth | 114% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | |