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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Fair Value | ¥10.56 - ¥11.33 | ¥10.83 |
| Upside | 28.1% - 37.5% | 31.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| Revenue | 3,920 | 4,017 | 4,569 | 4,912 | 5,084 | 5,186 | 5,289 | 5,395 | 5,503 | 5,613 | 5,725 | |
| % Growth | 5.2% | 2.5% | 13.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 235 | 753 | 760 | 866 | 896 | 914 | 932 | 951 | 970 | 989 | 1,009 | |
| % of Revenue | 6.0% | 18.7% | 16.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 753 | 760 | 866 | 896 | 914 | 932 | 951 | 970 | 989 | 1,009 | 1,009 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (259) | (223) | (240) | (248) | (253) | (258) | (263) | (269) | (274) | (280) | (89) | |
| EBIT | 493 | 536 | 626 | 648 | 661 | 674 | 687 | 701 | 715 | 729 | 920 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (148) | (161) | (188) | (194) | (198) | (202) | (206) | (210) | (215) | (219) | (276) | |
| NOPAT | 109 | 345 | 376 | 438 | 453 | 462 | 472 | 481 | 491 | 501 | 511 | 644 |
| Capital Expenditures | (122) | (54) | (84) | (90) | (93) | (95) | (93) | (94) | (94) | (93) | (94) | (94) |
| NWC Investment | (49) | (24) | (138) | (86) | (43) | (25) | (26) | (26) | (27) | (28) | (28) | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 79 | 259 | 223 | 240 | 248 | 253 | 258 | 263 | 269 | 274 | 280 | 89 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18 | 527 | 377 | 502 | 566 | 595 | 611 | 625 | 639 | 654 | 669 | 639 |
| % Growth | 2878% | -28% | 33% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | -4% | |