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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 9.6x | 8.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥7.54 - ¥9.77 | ¥8.64 |
| Upside | 50.0% - 94.3% | 71.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 9,361 | 11,234 | 12,638 | 13,586 | 14,061 | 14,342 |
| % Growth | 27.0% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 917 | 1,606 | 2,123 | 2,418 | 2,502 | 2,552 |
| % of Revenue | 9.8% | 14.3% | 16.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 1,606 | 2,123 | 2,418 | 2,502 | 2,552 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (351) | (395) | (424) | (439) | (448) | |
| EBIT | 1,255 | 1,728 | 1,994 | 2,063 | 2,105 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (377) | (518) | (598) | (619) | (631) | |
| NOPAT | 483 | 879 | 1,210 | 1,396 | 1,444 | 1,473 |
| Capital Expenditures | (612) | (502) | (565) | (607) | (629) | (641) |
| NWC Investment | (186) | (175) | (131) | (89) | (44) | (26) |
| (+) D&A | 227 | 351 | 395 | 424 | 439 | 448 |
| Free Cash Flow | (88) | 552 | 908 | 1,124 | 1,210 | 1,254 |
| % Growth | NM | 64% | 24% | 8% | 4% | |