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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 73.2x - 75.2x | 74.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥4.17 - ¥4.45 | ¥4.30 |
| Upside | -52.0% - -48.8% | -50.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 343 | 343 | 343 | 343 | 343 | 343 |
| % Growth | -15.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 7 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| % of Revenue | 2.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| EBIT | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| NOPAT | (16) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Capital Expenditures | (32) | (25) | (26) | (28) | (28) | (28) |
| NWC Investment | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 26 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Free Cash Flow | (4) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |