Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 13.6x - 15.6x | 14.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥39.18 - ¥48.88 | ¥43.86 |
| Upside | -3.3% - 20.7% | 8.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 128,166 | 136,667 | 144,614 | 149,675 | 152,669 | 155,722 | 158,836 | 162,013 | 165,253 | 168,559 | 171,930 |
| % Growth | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 2,572 | 2,955 | 3,433 | 3,553 | 3,624 | 3,696 | 3,770 | 3,845 | 3,922 | 4,001 | 4,081 |
| % of Revenue | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 2,955 | 3,433 | 3,553 | 3,624 | 3,696 | 3,770 | 3,845 | 3,922 | 4,001 | 4,081 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (763) | (849) | (879) | (897) | (915) | (933) | (952) | (971) | (990) | (1,010) | |
| EBIT | 2,192 | 2,583 | 2,674 | 2,727 | 2,782 | 2,837 | 2,894 | 2,952 | 3,011 | 3,071 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (592) | (697) | (722) | (736) | (751) | (766) | (781) | (797) | (813) | (829) | |
| NOPAT | 1,795 | 1,600 | 1,886 | 1,952 | 1,991 | 2,031 | 2,071 | 2,113 | 2,155 | 2,198 | 2,242 |
| Capital Expenditures | (588) | (350) | (300) | (413) | (421) | (429) | (421) | (424) | (425) | (423) | (424) |
| NWC Investment | (858) | (853) | (798) | (508) | (301) | (307) | (313) | (319) | (325) | (332) | (338) |
| (+) D&A | 113 | 763 | 849 | 879 | 897 | 915 | 933 | 952 | 971 | 990 | 1,010 |
| Free Cash Flow | 462 | 1,160 | 1,637 | 1,910 | 2,166 | 2,209 | 2,270 | 2,321 | 2,375 | 2,433 | 2,489 |
| % Growth | 151% | 41% | 17% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |