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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 12.7x - 14.7x | 13.7x |
Fair Value | CHF 136.37 - CHF 165.13 | CHF 150.27 |
Upside | -7.1% - 12.5% | 2.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(CHF in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 1,108 | 1,119 | 1,165 | 1,219 | 1,218 | 1,258 | 1,283 | 1,308 | 1,334 | 1,361 | 1,388 |
% Growth | -3.8% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | -0.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 191 | 212 | 230 | 251 | 294 | 303 | 309 | 316 | 322 | 328 | 335 |
% of Revenue | 17.2% | 19.0% | 19.8% | 20.6% | 24.1% | 24.1% | 24.1% | 24.1% | 24.1% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(CHF in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 212 | 230 | 251 | 294 | 303 | 309 | 316 | 322 | 328 | 335 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (75) | (76) | (77) | (126) | (127) | (129) | (132) | (134) | (137) | (140) | |
EBIT | 137 | 154 | 174 | 168 | 177 | 180 | 184 | 187 | 191 | 195 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (34) | (39) | (43) | (42) | (44) | (45) | (46) | (47) | (48) | (49) | |
NOPAT | 89 | 103 | 116 | 130 | 126 | 132 | 135 | 138 | 141 | 143 | 146 |
Capital Expenditures | (36) | (53) | (59) | (61) | (81) | (86) | (76) | (78) | (79) | (78) | (78) |
NWC Investment | 10 | (2) | (10) | (12) | 0 | (9) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
(+) D&A | 73 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 126 | 127 | 129 | 132 | 134 | 137 | 140 |
Free Cash Flow | 135 | 123 | 123 | 134 | 171 | 164 | 182 | 186 | 190 | 197 | 202 |
% Growth | -9% | 0% | 10% | 27% | -4% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% |