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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Fair Value | ¥50.30 - ¥59.74 | ¥54.12 |
| Upside | 48.7% - 76.6% | 60.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 928 | 1,633 | 2,009 | 2,260 | 2,430 | 2,515 | 2,565 | 2,616 | 2,669 | 2,722 | 2,776 | |
| % Growth | 14.7% | 76.0% | 23.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 215 | 295 | 355 | 456 | 514 | 533 | 543 | 554 | 565 | 576 | 588 | |
| % of Revenue | 23.1% | 18.0% | 17.7% | 20.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 295 | 355 | 456 | 514 | 533 | 543 | 554 | 565 | 576 | 588 | 588 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (27) | (34) | (38) | (41) | (43) | (44) | (44) | (45) | (46) | (47) | (54) | |
| EBIT | 268 | 321 | 418 | 473 | 490 | 500 | 510 | 520 | 530 | 541 | 534 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (24) | (29) | (38) | (43) | (44) | (45) | (46) | (47) | (48) | (49) | (48) | |
| NOPAT | 182 | 244 | 292 | 380 | 431 | 446 | 455 | 464 | 473 | 482 | 492 | 486 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (70) | (47) | (53) | (57) | (59) | (56) | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) |
| NWC Investment | (16) | (93) | (50) | (33) | (22) | (11) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (1) |
| (+) D&A | 14 | 27 | 34 | 38 | 41 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 54 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 107 | 230 | 333 | 393 | 419 | 436 | 444 | 454 | 465 | 475 | 482 |
| % Growth | NM | 114% | 45% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | |