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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 20.9x - 23.1x | 22.0x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 13.5x - 14.9x | 14.2x |
Fair Value | ¥15.46 - ¥17.18 | ¥16.32 |
Upside | -21.9% - -13.3% | -17.6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.,Ltd. | 605599 | SHSE:605599 |
Leysen Jewellery Inc. | 603900 | SHSE:603900 |
Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co., Ltd. | 600655 | SHSE:600655 |
Hla Group Corp., Ltd. | 600398 | SHSE:600398 |
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited | 881 | SEHK:881 |
Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.,Ltd | 603214 | SHSE:603214 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
605599 | 603900 | 600655 | 600398 | 881 | 603214 | ||
SHSE:605599 | SHSE:603900 | SHSE:600655 | SHSE:600398 | SEHK:881 | SHSE:603214 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 11.7% | NM- | -41.8% | -3.7% | -6.8% | -4.0% | |
3Y CAGR | 22.6% | NM- | -53.1% | 16.6% | -24.3% | -1.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 1.6% | -33.9% | -48.3% | -13.5% | -31.8% | -5.8% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 5.7% | -1.3% | 5.4% | 15.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.3% | -7.0% | 1.2% | 15.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 5.5% | -14.5% | 0.8% | 16.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 4.6% | -11.4% | 0.8% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.36x | 1.84x | 0.67x | 1.58x | 0.29x | 0.85x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | -11.3x | 37.4x | 11.9x | 0.0x | 25.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 7.8x | -16.1x | 84.3x | 11.3x | 9.1x | 27.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -16.1x | 9.1x | 84.3x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 18.2x | 21.4x | 32.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 20.9x | 22.0x | 23.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 105 | 105 | 105 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,198 | 2,313 | 2,429 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (118) | (118) | (118) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,080 | 2,195 | 2,311 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 138.5 | 138.5 | 138.5 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 15.01 | 15.85 | 16.68 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 15.01 | 15.85 | 16.68 | 19.81 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -24.2% | -20.0% | -15.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 605599 | 603900 | 600655 | 600398 | 881 | 603214 | |
Enterprise Value | 7,053 | 2,002 | 31,498 | 34,487 | 48,723 | 2,862 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,497 | 310 | 13,443 | 6,391 | 23,129 | 521 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 10 | 0 | 16,324 | 537 | 129 | 42 | |
(-) Debt | (133) | (72) | (36,079) | (1,542) | (40,815) | (637) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (9) | 1 | (3,295) | (298) | (88) | (43) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 9,419 | 2,241 | 21,891 | 39,575 | 31,078 | 2,744 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 777.8 | 338.6 | 3,888.3 | 4,802.8 | 2,367.0 | 138.5 | |
Implied Stock Price | 12.11 | 6.62 | 5.63 | 8.24 | 13.13 | 19.81 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.11 | 6.62 | 5.63 | 8.24 | 14.06 | 19.81 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 |