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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 20.4x - 22.4x | 21.4x |
| Fair Value | ¥49.94 - ¥55.47 | ¥52.66 |
| Upside | -19.0% - -10.0% | -14.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 3,240 | 3,319 | 3,759 | 4,216 | 4,532 | 4,690 |
| % Growth | -2.2% | 2.4% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| EBITDA | 170 | 623 | 866 | 1,092 | 1,219 | 1,262 |
| % of Revenue | 5.2% | 18.8% | 23.0% | 25.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 623 | 866 | 1,092 | 1,219 | 1,262 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (46) | (100) | (119) | (127) | (132) | |
| EBIT | 578 | 767 | 974 | 1,092 | 1,130 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (81) | (107) | (136) | (153) | (158) | |
| NOPAT | 54 | 497 | 659 | 837 | 939 | 972 |
| Capital Expenditures | (73) | (415) | (240) | (245) | (300) | (311) |
| NWC Investment | 12 | (13) | (71) | (74) | (51) | (26) |
| (+) D&A | 107 | 46 | 100 | 119 | 127 | 132 |
| Free Cash Flow | 100 | 114 | 448 | 637 | 715 | 768 |
| % Growth | 15% | 292% | 42% | 12% | 7% | |