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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Fair Value | ¥14.17 - ¥17.52 | ¥15.23 |
| Upside | 47.2% - 81.9% | 58.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| Revenue | 2,137 | 2,963 | 3,704 | 4,259 | 4,791 | 5,151 | |
| % Growth | 91.0% | 38.7% | 25.0% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | |
| EBITDA | 143 | 388 | 484 | 663 | 866 | 982 | |
| % of Revenue | 6.7% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 18.1% | 19.1% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 388 | 484 | 663 | 866 | 982 | 982 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (16) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (29) | |
| EBIT | 372 | 476 | 654 | 855 | 971 | 953 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (63) | (81) | (111) | (145) | (165) | (162) | |
| NOPAT | 98 | 309 | 395 | 543 | 710 | 806 | 791 |
| Capital Expenditures | (61) | (7) | (7) | (25) | (28) | (30) | (30) |
| NWC Investment | (327) | (265) | (238) | (178) | (171) | (115) | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 25 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 29 |
| Free Cash Flow | (265) | 52 | 158 | 349 | 521 | 671 | 790 |
| % Growth | NM | 202% | 121% | 50% | 29% | 18% | |