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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.6x - 10.6x | 9.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥46.19 - ¥53.27 | ¥49.61 |
| Upside | 73.2% - 99.8% | 86.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 27,042 | 34,628 | 39,617 | 46,232 | 52,011 | 55,912 | 57,869 | 59,026 | 60,207 | 61,411 | 62,639 |
| % Growth | 24.1% | 28.1% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 2,675 | 4,753 | 5,450 | 6,210 | 8,287 | 9,468 | 9,799 | 9,995 | 10,195 | 10,399 | 10,607 |
| % of Revenue | 9.9% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 15.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| EBITDA | 4,753 | 5,450 | 6,210 | 8,287 | 9,468 | 9,799 | 9,995 | 10,195 | 10,399 | 10,607 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (956) | (851) | (683) | (769) | (827) | (855) | (873) | (890) | (908) | (926) | |
| EBIT | 3,797 | 4,599 | 5,527 | 7,518 | 8,641 | 8,944 | 9,122 | 9,305 | 9,491 | 9,681 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (342) | (414) | (497) | (677) | (778) | (805) | (821) | (837) | (854) | (871) | |
| NOPAT | 1,788 | 3,455 | 4,185 | 5,030 | 6,842 | 7,863 | 8,139 | 8,301 | 8,467 | 8,637 | 8,810 |
| Capital Expenditures | (567) | (625) | (600) | (669) | (753) | (809) | (744) | (758) | (770) | (757) | (762) |
| NWC Investment | 578 | 836 | 550 | 729 | 637 | 430 | 216 | 128 | 130 | 133 | 135 |
| (+) D&A | 711 | 956 | 851 | 683 | 769 | 827 | 855 | 873 | 890 | 908 | 926 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,509 | 4,622 | 4,986 | 5,773 | 7,494 | 8,311 | 8,466 | 8,543 | 8,717 | 8,920 | 9,109 |
| % Growth | 84% | 8% | 16% | 30% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |