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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.3% - 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Fair Value | ¥11.71 - ¥17.20 | ¥14 |
| Upside | -29.6% - 3.4% | -15.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| Revenue | 6,631 | 7,293 | 6,750 | 5,279 | 5,279 | 5,279 | 5,279 | 5,279 | 5,279 | 5,279 | 5,279 | |
| % Growth | 27.4% | 10.0% | -7.4% | -21.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 3,330 | 3,268 | 4,117 | 4,399 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | |
| % of Revenue | 50.2% | 44.8% | 61.0% | 83.3% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 3,268 | 4,117 | 4,399 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | 4,223 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (905) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,336) | |
| EBIT | 2,363 | 2,710 | 2,993 | 2,817 | 2,817 | 2,817 | 2,817 | 2,817 | 2,817 | 2,817 | 2,887 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (685) | (786) | (868) | (817) | (817) | (817) | (817) | (817) | (817) | (817) | (837) | |
| NOPAT | 1,714 | 1,678 | 1,924 | 2,125 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,050 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,116) | (3,606) | (4,868) | (526) | (3,000) | (2,798) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) | (1,407) |
| NWC Investment | 219 | 102 | (83) | (226) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| (+) D&A | 916 | 905 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,336 |
| Free Cash Flow | 732 | (922) | (1,620) | 2,780 | 407 | 609 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 1,994 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | -85% | 50% | 228% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |