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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.2% - 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Fair Value | ฿5.98 - ฿7.13 | ฿6.48 |
| Upside | 23.1% - 46.6% | 33.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (THB in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 475 | 605 | 714 | 803 | 863 | 894 | 912 | 930 | 948 | 967 | 987 | |
| % Growth | 29.0% | 27.5% | 18.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 120 | 175 | 208 | 254 | 282 | 292 | 297 | 303 | 309 | 316 | 322 | |
| % of Revenue | 25.2% | 28.9% | 29.1% | 31.6% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (THB in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 175 | 208 | 254 | 282 | 292 | 297 | 303 | 309 | 316 | 322 | 322 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (64) | (72) | (81) | (87) | (90) | (92) | (94) | (96) | (98) | (100) | (59) | |
| EBIT | 111 | 136 | 173 | 195 | 202 | 206 | 210 | 214 | 218 | 222 | 263 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (21) | (26) | (33) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (40) | (41) | (41) | (42) | (50) | |
| NOPAT | 77 | 90 | 110 | 140 | 158 | 163 | 166 | 170 | 173 | 177 | 180 | 213 |
| Capital Expenditures | (11) | (99) | (43) | (51) | (64) | (67) | (61) | (62) | (63) | (62) | (62) | (62) |
| NWC Investment | (36) | (44) | (37) | (30) | (20) | (10) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (3) |
| (+) D&A | 25 | 64 | 72 | 81 | 87 | 90 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 98 | 100 | 59 |
| Free Cash Flow | 55 | 11 | 102 | 140 | 160 | 177 | 192 | 196 | 200 | 206 | 211 | 207 |
| % Growth | -80% | 841% | 37% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | -2% | |