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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 15.3% - 14.2% | 14.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 1.8x - 3.8x | 2.8x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.53 - HK$ 1.09 | HK$ 0.81 |
| Upside | -5.3% - 95.5% | 44.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 14,510 | 14,510 | 14,510 | 14,510 | 14,510 | 14,510 |
| % Growth | -19.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 2,232 | 2,048 | 2,048 | 2,048 | 2,048 | 2,048 |
| % of Revenue | 15.4% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 2,048 | 2,048 | 2,048 | 2,048 | 2,048 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,164) | (1,164) | (1,164) | (1,164) | (1,164) | |
| EBIT | 884 | 884 | 884 | 884 | 884 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (274) | (274) | (274) | (274) | (274) | |
| NOPAT | 618 | 610 | 610 | 610 | 610 | 610 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (1,076) | (1,076) | (1,076) | (1,076) | (1,076) |
| NWC Investment | (149) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 1,337 | 1,164 | 1,164 | 1,164 | 1,164 | 1,164 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 698 | 698 | 698 | 698 | 698 |
| % Growth | NM | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |