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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.1x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 21.01 - HK$ 22.61 | HK$ 21.79 |
| Upside | 42.9% - 53.8% | 48.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 |
| Revenue | 5,238 | 5,508 | 6,000 | 6,434 | 6,659 | 6,792 |
| % Growth | 17.3% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,320 | 1,567 | 1,539 | 1,562 | 1,617 | 1,649 |
| % of Revenue | 25.2% | 28.4% | 25.7% | 24.3% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | |
| EBITDA | 1,567 | 1,539 | 1,562 | 1,617 | 1,649 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (341) | (205) | (133) | (137) | (140) | |
| EBIT | 1,226 | 1,335 | 1,429 | 1,480 | 1,509 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (343) | (374) | (400) | (414) | (423) | |
| NOPAT | 864 | 883 | 961 | 1,029 | 1,065 | 1,087 |
| Capital Expenditures | (135) | (124) | (133) | (133) | (137) | (140) |
| NWC Investment | 70 | 25 | 45 | 40 | 21 | 12 |
| (+) D&A | 120 | 341 | 205 | 133 | 137 | 140 |
| Free Cash Flow | 919 | 1,124 | 1,077 | 1,069 | 1,086 | 1,099 |
| % Growth | 22% | -4% | -1% | 2% | 1% | |