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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.9x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.8x |
Fair Value | HK$ 1.60 - HK$ 1.99 | HK$ 1.79 |
Upside | 44.2% - 79.1% | 61.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
China Gas Holdings Limited | 384 | SEHK:384 |
Kunlun Energy Company Limited | 135 | SEHK:135 |
Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings Limited | 6828 | SEHK:6828 |
China Oil And Gas Group Limited | 603 | SEHK:603 |
Global Strategic Group Limited | 8007 | SEHK:8007 |
Binhai Investment Company Limited | 2886 | SEHK:2886 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
384 | 135 | 6828 | 603 | 8007 | 2886 | |||
SEHK:384 | SEHK:135 | SEHK:6828 | SEHK:603 | SEHK:8007 | SEHK:2886 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 6.5% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 11.7% | ||
3Y CAGR | 5.2% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 7.2% | 45.7% | 8.6% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -5.4% | 5.5% | -0.5% | -4.7% | 33.2% | -3.3% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 12.6% | 6.5% | -12.9% | 9.1% | -29.5% | 9.3% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 6.8% | -14.2% | 5.6% | -9.8% | 8.1% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 6.9% | 6.4% | -6.9% | 7.7% | -1.0% | 6.6% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 7.1% | 6.4% | -9.0% | 7.7% | -1.0% | 6.6% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.93x | 0.27x | 0.62x | 0.39x | 1.06x | 0.71x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.1x | 4.0x | -6.9x | 5.1x | -106.6x | 10.7x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.49x | 0.33x | 0.45x | 0.05x | 0.07x | 0.25x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.62x | 1.06x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 0.87x | 1.12x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.84x | 0.88x | 0.92x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 6,198 | 6,198 | 6,198 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,181 | 5,453 | 5,726 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,861) | (2,861) | (2,861) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,319 | 2,592 | 2,865 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,375.9 | 1,375.9 | 1,375.9 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 1.69 | 1.88 | 2.08 | |||||
FX Rate: HKD/HKD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.69 | 1.88 | 2.08 | 1.11 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 51.9% | 69.7% | 87.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 384 | 135 | 6828 | 603 | 8007 | 2886 | |
Enterprise Value | 75,377 | 51,329 | 1,230 | 6,876 | 233 | 4,389 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,232 | 45,092 | 515 | 4,348 | 24 | 385 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 22,758 | 14,988 | 2,158 | 1,675 | 0 | 322 | |
(-) Debt | (60,771) | (24,279) | (2,793) | (8,575) | (147) | (3,342) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (7,042) | (23,686) | (200) | (3,554) | (96) | (82) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (144) | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 39,554 | 63,444 | 909 | 769 | 15 | 1,527 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 5,448.2 | 8,658.8 | 22,736.1 | 4,806.8 | 455.9 | 1,375.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 7.26 | 7.33 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 1.11 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.26 | 7.84 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 1.11 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |