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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 6.8x | 6.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.5x - 6.1x | 5.8x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.67 - HK$ 0.96 | HK$ 0.82 |
| Upside | -37.3% - -10.3% | -23.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Gas Holdings Limited | 384 | SEHK:384 |
| Kunlun Energy Company Limited | 135 | SEHK:135 |
| Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings Limited | 6828 | SEHK:6828 |
| China Oil And Gas Group Limited | 603 | SEHK:603 |
| Global Strategic Group Limited | 8007 | SEHK:8007 |
| Binhai Investment Company Limited | 2886 | SEHK:2886 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 384 | 135 | 6828 | 603 | 8007 | 2886 | ||
| SEHK:384 | SEHK:135 | SEHK:6828 | SEHK:603 | SEHK:8007 | SEHK:2886 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -5.8% | 5.0% | -20.6% | 5.3% | NM- | 8.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -17.8% | 6.7% | NM- | -1.6% | NM- | -5.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.5% | -0.9% | 103.2% | 20.4% | 1823.5% | -17.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 15.4% | 9.9% | -7.7% | 13.6% | -9.3% | 12.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 9.4% | -2.3% | 9.4% | -0.7% | 11.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.1% | 8.8% | 0.1% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.5% | 8.8% | 0.1% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.92x | 0.26x | 0.58x | 0.38x | 1.05x | 0.70x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 2.9x | 621.0x | 3.2x | 11.3x | 7.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 4.0x | -10.0x | 5.0x | -106.2x | 10.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 8.7x | 621.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 5.7x | 7.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.4x | 6.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 608 | 608 | 608 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,723 | 3,918 | 4,114 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,859) | (2,859) | (2,859) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 863 | 1,059 | 1,255 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,374.1 | 1,374.1 | 1,374.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.91 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/HKD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 1.07 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.3% | -27.9% | -14.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 384 | 135 | 6828 | 603 | 8007 | 2886 | |
| Enterprise Value | 74,070 | 47,952 | 982 | 6,785 | 232 | 4,329 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,232 | 45,092 | 360 | 4,348 | 24 | 387 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 22,758 | 14,988 | 1,993 | 1,675 | 0 | 322 | |
| (-) Debt | (60,771) | (24,279) | (2,348) | (8,575) | (147) | (3,342) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7,042) | (23,686) | (124) | (3,554) | (96) | (82) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (144) | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 38,246 | 60,067 | 864 | 678 | 14 | 1,470 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,448.2 | 8,658.8 | 22,736.1 | 4,806.8 | 455.9 | 1,374.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.02 | 6.94 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 1.07 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.02 | 7.40 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 1.07 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |