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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 17.0x - 18.8x | 17.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 14.0x - 15.4x | 14.7x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.61 - HK$ 0.70 | HK$ 0.65 |
| Upside | -14.1% - -2.1% | -8.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Beibu Gulf Port Co., Ltd. | 582 | SZSE:000582 |
| TangShan Port Group Co.,Ltd | 601000 | SHSE:601000 |
| Qinhuangdao Port Co., Ltd. | 3369 | SEHK:3369 |
| Qilu Expressway Company Limited | 1576 | SEHK:1576 |
| Xiamen International Airport Co.,Ltd | 600897 | SHSE:600897 |
| Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. | 2880 | SEHK:2880 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 582 | 601000 | 3369 | 1576 | 600897 | 2880 | ||
| SZSE:000582 | SHSE:601000 | SEHK:3369 | SEHK:1576 | SHSE:600897 | SEHK:2880 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.2% | 5.5% | -0.1% | 4.8% | -8.0% | 23.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | -8.7% | 31.1% | -9.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.6% | 2.8% | -15.5% | -34.5% | 81.9% | -13.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 26.3% | 28.0% | 25.1% | 43.2% | 17.4% | 22.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 36.6% | -1.1% | 18.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 22.9% | 34.1% | 24.2% | 12.3% | 26.1% | 20.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 22.9% | 35.5% | 22.6% | 8.8% | 30.7% | 17.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.06x | 3.49x | 2.58x | 1.89x | 2.01x | 3.63x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.5x | 7.2x | 6.0x | 15.0x | 5.0x | 10.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.7x | 9.8x | 11.4x | 21.5x | 6.6x | 20.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.6x | 11.4x | 21.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 15.4x | 22.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 17.0x | 17.9x | 18.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,020 | 2,020 | 2,020 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 34,339 | 36,147 | 37,954 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,648) | (8,648) | (8,648) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 25,691 | 27,499 | 29,306 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 45,653.0 | 45,653.0 | 45,653.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.64 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.71 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.2% | -9.2% | -3.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 582 | 601000 | 3369 | 1576 | 600897 | 2880 | |
| Enterprise Value | 26,207 | 19,912 | 18,397 | 12,709 | 3,750 | 38,941 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,795 | 4,534 | 2,534 | 978 | 2,803 | 4,258 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 3,926 | 4,619 | 24 | 50 | 3,311 | |
| (-) Debt | (10,286) | (1) | (5,633) | (9,150) | (80) | (12,471) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,586) | (953) | (131) | (285) | (3,746) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 19,715 | 26,785 | 18,964 | 4,430 | 6,237 | 30,293 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,250.6 | 5,925.9 | 9,140.1 | 2,000.0 | 416.9 | 45,653.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 8.76 | 4.52 | 2.07 | 2.21 | 14.96 | 0.66 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.76 | 4.52 | 2.22 | 2.37 | 14.96 | 0.71 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | HKD | HKD | CNY | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |