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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.7x - 9.7x | 8.7x |
| Fair Value | ﷼41.43 - ﷼49.83 | ﷼45.57 |
| Upside | 36.1% - 63.7% | 49.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 394 | 394 | 394 | 394 | 394 | 394 |
| % Growth | -21.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 119 | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 |
| % of Revenue | 30.2% | 38.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 | 151 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | |
| EBIT | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| NOPAT | 73 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Capital Expenditures | (26) | (20) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) |
| NWC Investment | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 39 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Free Cash Flow | 149 | 121 | 119 | 118 | 118 | 118 |
| % Growth | -19% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 0% | |