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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.1x - 1.3x | 1.2x |
| Fair Value | ﷼113.18 - ﷼129.02 | ﷼120.86 |
| Upside | 19.4% - 36.1% | 27.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 6,781 | 7,523 | 8,170 | 8,837 | 9,482 | 10,106 | 10,460 | 10,669 | 10,882 | 11,100 | 11,322 |
| % Growth | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 657 | 823 | 917 | 1,021 | 1,128 | 1,215 | 1,258 | 1,283 | 1,308 | 1,334 | 1,361 |
| % of Revenue | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 823 | 917 | 1,021 | 1,128 | 1,215 | 1,258 | 1,283 | 1,308 | 1,334 | 1,361 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (127) | (137) | (128) | (131) | (136) | (141) | (144) | (146) | (149) | (152) | |
| EBIT | 696 | 780 | 893 | 997 | 1,079 | 1,117 | 1,139 | 1,162 | 1,185 | 1,209 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (49) | (55) | (63) | (70) | (76) | (78) | (80) | (81) | (83) | (85) | |
| NOPAT | 567 | 647 | 726 | 830 | 927 | 1,003 | 1,039 | 1,059 | 1,081 | 1,102 | 1,124 |
| Capital Expenditures | (49) | (50) | (82) | (56) | (58) | (59) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) |
| NWC Investment | (105) | (134) | (117) | (121) | (117) | (113) | (64) | (38) | (39) | (39) | (40) |
| (+) D&A | 48 | 127 | 137 | 128 | 131 | 136 | 141 | 144 | 146 | 149 | 152 |
| Free Cash Flow | 460 | 590 | 663 | 782 | 883 | 967 | 1,058 | 1,107 | 1,130 | 1,154 | 1,178 |
| % Growth | 12% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ||