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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.3% - 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Fair Value | ﷼88.33 - ﷼118.49 | ﷼101.09 |
| Upside | 17.8% - 58.0% | 34.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 2,879 | 3,354 | 3,778 | 3,999 | 4,375 | 4,528 | |
| % Growth | 6.4% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 3.5% | |
| EBITDA | 956 | 1,221 | 1,222 | 1,500 | 1,696 | 1,898 | |
| % of Revenue | 33.2% | 36.4% | 32.3% | 37.5% | 38.8% | 41.9% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,221 | 1,222 | 1,500 | 1,696 | 1,898 | 1,898 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (272) | (254) | (416) | (531) | (128) | (188) | |
| EBIT | 949 | 968 | 1,085 | 1,165 | 1,770 | 1,710 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (104) | (106) | (119) | (128) | (195) | (188) | |
| NOPAT | 644 | 845 | 862 | 965 | 1,037 | 1,575 | 1,522 |
| Capital Expenditures | (429) | (149) | (153) | (170) | (189) | (198) | (198) |
| NWC Investment | (46) | (126) | (112) | (59) | (99) | (41) | (21) |
| (+) D&A | 232 | 272 | 254 | 416 | 531 | 128 | 188 |
| Free Cash Flow | 401 | 842 | 850 | 1,152 | 1,279 | 1,465 | 1,491 |
| % Growth | 110% | 1% | 36% | 11% | 14% | 2% | |