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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 12.6x - 14.6x | 13.6x |
| Fair Value | ﷼104.46 - ﷼122.82 | ﷼113.33 |
| Upside | 35.6% - 59.4% | 47.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 2,879 | 3,354 | 3,637 | 3,926 | 4,430 | 4,794 | 4,962 | 5,061 | 5,162 | 5,265 | 5,371 |
| % Growth | 6.4% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 956 | 1,221 | 1,161 | 1,270 | 1,696 | 1,898 | 1,964 | 2,004 | 2,044 | 2,085 | 2,126 |
| % of Revenue | 33.2% | 36.4% | 31.9% | 32.3% | 38.3% | 39.6% | 39.6% | 39.6% | 39.6% | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 1,221 | 1,161 | 1,270 | 1,696 | 1,898 | 1,964 | 2,004 | 2,044 | 2,085 | 2,126 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (272) | (252) | (224) | (473) | (457) | (473) | (482) | (492) | (502) | (512) | |
| EBIT | 949 | 909 | 1,046 | 1,223 | 1,441 | 1,491 | 1,521 | 1,552 | 1,583 | 1,614 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (104) | (100) | (115) | (135) | (159) | (164) | (167) | (171) | (174) | (178) | |
| NOPAT | 644 | 845 | 809 | 931 | 1,088 | 1,282 | 1,327 | 1,354 | 1,381 | 1,409 | 1,437 |
| Capital Expenditures | (429) | (149) | (153) | (363) | (189) | (198) | (205) | (197) | (200) | (201) | (199) |
| NWC Investment | (40) | (110) | (65) | (67) | (117) | (84) | (39) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (24) |
| (+) D&A | 232 | 272 | 252 | 224 | 473 | 457 | 473 | 482 | 492 | 502 | 512 |
| Free Cash Flow | 407 | 858 | 843 | 725 | 1,256 | 1,457 | 1,557 | 1,616 | 1,650 | 1,686 | 1,725 |
| % Growth | 111% | -2% | -14% | 73% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |