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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | ﷼10.96 - ﷼12.55 | ﷼11.74 |
| Upside | 12.1% - 28.4% | 20.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 10,716 | 18,629 | 12,138 | 12,769 | 14,308 | 15,205 |
| % Growth | 5.0% | 73.8% | -34.8% | 5.2% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
| EBITDA | 674 | 1,025 | 1,090 | 1,166 | 1,393 | 1,512 |
| % of Revenue | 6.3% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 1,025 | 1,090 | 1,166 | 1,393 | 1,512 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (336) | (520) | (550) | (649) | (696) | |
| EBIT | 689 | 570 | 617 | 745 | 816 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (76) | (63) | (68) | (82) | (90) | |
| NOPAT | 405 | 613 | 507 | 549 | 663 | 726 |
| Capital Expenditures | (592) | (373) | (474) | (430) | (408) | (388) |
| NWC Investment | 57 | 875 | (718) | 70 | 170 | 99 |
| (+) D&A | 219 | 336 | 520 | 550 | 649 | 696 |
| Free Cash Flow | 88 | 1,451 | (165) | 738 | 1,073 | 1,133 |
| % Growth | 1541% | NM | NM | 45% | 6% | |