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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.1x - 1.2x | 1.2x |
| Fair Value | ﷼13.74 - ﷼15.94 | ﷼14.80 |
| Upside | 48.7% - 72.5% | 60.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 10,716 | 18,629 | 12,138 | 12,769 | 14,308 | 15,205 | 15,737 | 16,052 | 16,373 | 16,700 | 17,034 |
| % Growth | 5.0% | 73.8% | -34.8% | 5.2% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 674 | 1,025 | 1,090 | 1,166 | 1,393 | 1,512 | 1,565 | 1,596 | 1,628 | 1,661 | 1,694 |
| % of Revenue | 6.3% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 1,025 | 1,090 | 1,166 | 1,393 | 1,512 | 1,565 | 1,596 | 1,628 | 1,661 | 1,694 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (336) | (520) | (550) | (649) | (696) | (720) | (735) | (749) | (764) | (780) | |
| EBIT | 689 | 570 | 617 | 745 | 816 | 845 | 861 | 879 | 896 | 914 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (76) | (63) | (68) | (82) | (90) | (93) | (95) | (97) | (99) | (101) | |
| NOPAT | 405 | 613 | 507 | 549 | 663 | 726 | 752 | 767 | 782 | 798 | 814 |
| Capital Expenditures | (592) | (373) | (474) | (430) | (408) | (388) | (402) | (399) | (396) | (399) | (398) |
| NWC Investment | 57 | 875 | (718) | 70 | 170 | 99 | 59 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 |
| (+) D&A | 219 | 336 | 520 | 550 | 649 | 696 | 720 | 735 | 749 | 764 | 780 |
| Free Cash Flow | 88 | 1,451 | (165) | 738 | 1,073 | 1,133 | 1,129 | 1,137 | 1,171 | 1,199 | 1,232 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | ||