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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.4x - 11.4x | 10.4x |
Fair Value | ﷼143.60 - ﷼169.31 | ﷼156.21 |
Upside | -9.3% - 6.9% | -1.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(SAR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 3,062 | 3,297 | 3,618 | 3,901 | 4,060 | 4,428 |
% Growth | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 9.1% |
EBITDA | 734 | 809 | 878 | 956 | 1,024 | 1,161 |
% of Revenue | 24.0% | 24.5% | 24.3% | 24.5% | 25.2% | 26.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(SAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 809 | 878 | 956 | 1,024 | 1,161 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (74) | (57) | (51) | (62) | (81) | |
EBIT | 735 | 821 | 905 | 963 | 1,080 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (96) | (107) | (118) | (125) | (140) | |
NOPAT | 573 | 639 | 714 | 787 | 837 | 940 |
Capital Expenditures | (252) | (66) | (60) | (61) | (65) | (59) |
NWC Investment | (72) | (69) | (95) | (84) | (47) | (109) |
(+) D&A | 75 | 74 | 57 | 51 | 62 | 81 |
Free Cash Flow | 324 | 578 | 616 | 694 | 787 | 853 |
% Growth | 78% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 8% |