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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.5x - 12.5x | 11.5x |
| Fair Value | ﷼163.39 - ﷼190.06 | ﷼176.26 |
| Upside | 4.1% - 21.1% | 12.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 3,062 | 3,297 | 3,618 | 3,901 | 4,060 | 4,428 | 4,583 | 4,675 | 4,768 | 4,863 | 4,961 |
| % Growth | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 734 | 809 | 878 | 956 | 1,024 | 1,161 | 1,202 | 1,226 | 1,250 | 1,275 | 1,301 |
| % of Revenue | 24.0% | 24.5% | 24.3% | 24.5% | 25.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 809 | 878 | 956 | 1,024 | 1,161 | 1,202 | 1,226 | 1,250 | 1,275 | 1,301 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (74) | (57) | (51) | (62) | (81) | (84) | (86) | (87) | (89) | (91) | |
| EBIT | 735 | 821 | 905 | 963 | 1,080 | 1,118 | 1,140 | 1,163 | 1,186 | 1,210 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (96) | (107) | (118) | (125) | (140) | (145) | (148) | (151) | (154) | (157) | |
| NOPAT | 573 | 639 | 714 | 787 | 837 | 940 | 972 | 992 | 1,012 | 1,032 | 1,053 |
| Capital Expenditures | (252) | (66) | (60) | (61) | (65) | (59) | (61) | (62) | (61) | (61) | (61) |
| NWC Investment | (72) | (69) | (95) | (84) | (47) | (109) | (46) | (27) | (28) | (28) | (29) |
| (+) D&A | 75 | 74 | 57 | 51 | 62 | 81 | 84 | 86 | 87 | 89 | 91 |
| Free Cash Flow | 324 | 578 | 616 | 694 | 787 | 853 | 950 | 989 | 1,011 | 1,032 | 1,054 |
| % Growth | 78% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |