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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 11.6x - 13.6x | 12.6x |
| Fair Value | ﷼152.12 - ﷼176.49 | ﷼163.88 |
| Upside | 1.0% - 17.2% | 8.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 3,062 | 3,315 | 3,603 | 3,894 | 4,045 | 4,126 | 4,208 | 4,293 | 4,378 | 4,466 | 4,555 |
| % Growth | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 734 | 836 | 885 | 965 | 1,036 | 1,057 | 1,078 | 1,099 | 1,121 | 1,144 | 1,167 |
| % of Revenue | 24.0% | 25.2% | 24.6% | 24.8% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (SAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 836 | 885 | 965 | 1,036 | 1,057 | 1,078 | 1,099 | 1,121 | 1,144 | 1,167 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (89) | (75) | (78) | (111) | (113) | (115) | (118) | (120) | (123) | (125) | |
| EBIT | 748 | 810 | 888 | 925 | 944 | 962 | 982 | 1,001 | 1,021 | 1,042 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (97) | (105) | (115) | (120) | (123) | (125) | (128) | (130) | (133) | (135) | |
| NOPAT | 573 | 650 | 705 | 772 | 805 | 821 | 837 | 854 | 871 | 889 | 906 |
| Capital Expenditures | (252) | (108) | (116) | (125) | (130) | (132) | (129) | (130) | (131) | (130) | (130) |
| NWC Investment | (73) | (76) | (86) | (87) | (45) | (24) | (25) | (25) | (26) | (26) | (27) |
| (+) D&A | 75 | 89 | 75 | 78 | 111 | 113 | 115 | 118 | 120 | 123 | 125 |
| Free Cash Flow | 323 | 555 | 577 | 637 | 741 | 777 | 799 | 816 | 835 | 855 | 874 |
| % Growth | 72% | 4% | 10% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |