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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.0x - 10.0x | 9.0x |
| Fair Value | ₱2,476 - ₱3,347 | ₱2,896 |
| Upside | 14.1% - 54.3% | 33.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (PHP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 180,802 | 190,661 | 199,549 | 200,986 | 200,986 | 200,986 | 200,986 | 200,986 | 200,986 | 200,986 | 200,986 |
| % Growth | 0.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 74,677 | 89,679 | 93,582 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 |
| % of Revenue | 41.3% | 47.0% | 46.9% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (PHP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 89,679 | 93,582 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | 96,111 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (51,474) | (50,992) | (59,138) | (55,836) | (53,288) | (53,288) | (53,288) | (53,288) | (53,288) | (53,288) | |
| EBIT | 38,204 | 42,590 | 36,973 | 40,275 | 42,823 | 42,823 | 42,823 | 42,823 | 42,823 | 42,823 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (8,787) | (9,796) | (8,504) | (9,263) | (9,849) | (9,849) | (9,849) | (9,849) | (9,849) | (9,849) | |
| NOPAT | 30,361 | 29,417 | 32,794 | 28,469 | 31,012 | 32,974 | 32,974 | 32,974 | 32,974 | 32,974 | 32,974 |
| Capital Expenditures | (55,960) | (49,998) | (47,400) | (47,450) | (22,611) | (26,895) | (26,895) | (25,467) | (25,467) | (25,467) | (25,467) |
| NWC Investment | 87 | 1,891 | 1,705 | 276 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 35,247 | 51,474 | 50,992 | 59,138 | 55,836 | 53,288 | 53,288 | 53,288 | 53,288 | 53,288 | 53,288 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,735 | 32,784 | 38,091 | 40,432 | 64,236 | 59,366 | 59,366 | 60,794 | 60,794 | 60,794 | 60,794 |
| % Growth | 237% | 16% | 6% | 59% | -8% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |