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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12.5x - 13.8x | 13.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.3x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
| Fair Value | ₱2.25 - ₱2.52 | ₱2.38 |
| Upside | -9.2% - 1.6% | -3.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. | FNI | PSE:FNI |
| Benguet Corporation | BCB | PSE:BCB |
| Oriental Peninsula Resources Group, Inc. | ORE | PSE:ORE |
| Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company | LC | PSE:LC |
| East Coast Vulcan Mining Corporation | ECVC | PSE:ECVC |
| Century Peak Holdings Corporation | CPM | PSE:CPM |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| FNI | BCB | ORE | LC | ECVC | CPM | ||
| PSE:FNI | PSE:BCB | PSE:ORE | PSE:LC | PSE:ECVC | PSE:CPM | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -7.4% | NM- | NM- | NM- | -24.7% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -23.1% | -33.3% | NM- | NM- | -33.1% | 12.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -40.1% | 254.5% | 81.6% | 1358.7% | -28.0% | -31.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 38.8% | 31.3% | -2.6% | 1.5% | 60.0% | 10.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 40.5% | 29.1% | -32.1% | 18.4% | 76.9% | 25.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 22.1% | 21.5% | -29.8% | 24.7% | 68.6% | 20.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 21.1% | 25.9% | -7.0% | 33.3% | 72.1% | 18.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.17x | 0.11x | 0.97x | 4.32x | 8.60x | 2.52x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.8x | 0.4x | -13.8x | 13.0x | 11.9x | 13.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 1.2x | 0.4x | -4.6x | 23.0x | 61.7x | 133.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -13.8x | 0.8x | 13.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -189.0x | 21.8x | 319.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.5x | 13.2x | 13.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 565 | 565 | 565 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,068 | 7,440 | 7,812 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (848) | (848) | (848) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,220 | 6,592 | 6,964 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,820.3 | 2,820.3 | 2,820.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.21 | 2.34 | 2.47 | ||||
| FX Rate: PHP/PHP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.21 | 2.34 | 2.47 | 2.48 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -11.1% | -5.7% | -0.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FNI | BCB | ORE | LC | ECVC | CPM | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,388 | 378 | 623 | 13,428 | 2,581 | 7,842 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,315 | 2,985 | 365 | 225 | 5 | 278 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,809 | 0 | 369 | 514 | 0 | 12 | |
| (-) Debt | (759) | (14) | (134) | (6,544) | (597) | (1,173) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (141) | 0 | (158) | (255) | 0 | 35 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,611 | 3,349 | 1,065 | 7,368 | 1,989 | 6,994 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,125.2 | 715.6 | 2,878.5 | 66,375.8 | 6,630.0 | 2,820.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.29 | 4.68 | 0.37 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 2.48 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.29 | 4.68 | 0.37 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 2.48 | |
| Trading Currency | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |