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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.7x | 5.5x |
| Fair Value | ₱0.59 - ₱1.06 | ₱0.82 |
| Upside | 3.7% - 85.6% | 44.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Repower Energy Development Corporation | REDC | PSE:REDC |
| Acen Corporation | ACEN | PSE:ACEN |
| NexGen Energy Corp. | XG | PSE:XG |
| Alternergy Holdings Corporation | ALTER | PSE:ALTER |
| SP New Energy Corporation | SPNEC | PSE:SPNEC |
| Alsons Consolidated Resources, Inc. | ACR | PSE:ACR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| REDC | ACEN | XG | ALTER | SPNEC | ACR | ||
| PSE:REDC | PSE:ACEN | PSE:XG | PSE:ALTER | PSE:SPNEC | PSE:ACR | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 144.4% | 43.5% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 13.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 31.6% | 12.2% | -5.2% | 40.6% | NM- | 6.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.0% | 0.1% | NM | -5.1% | -200.7% | 17.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 73.3% | 13.2% | 54.9% | 19.7% | 7.6% | 44.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 69.6% | 4.3% | 68.7% | 15.4% | 48.3% | 41.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 73.1% | 15.9% | 59.8% | 50.0% | -61.2% | 44.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 73.7% | 12.7% | 51.3% | -41.3% | -64.7% | 46.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 11.25x | 4.85x | 52.43x | -15.93x | 87.44x | 2.23x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.3x | 38.0x | 102.1x | 38.6x | -135.2x | 4.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 21.9x | 125.2x | -453.7x | 81.1x | -93.0x | 6.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -135.2x | 38.0x | 102.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 5.4x | 8.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.8x | 5.1x | 5.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 5,796 | 5,796 | 5,796 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 27,870 | 29,337 | 30,804 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (24,163) | (24,163) | (24,163) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,707 | 5,174 | 6,641 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,291.5 | 6,291.5 | 6,291.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.59 | 0.82 | 1.06 | ||||
| FX Rate: PHP/PHP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.59 | 0.82 | 1.06 | 0.57 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 3.4% | 44.3% | 85.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | REDC | ACEN | XG | ALTER | SPNEC | ACR | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,837 | 160,167 | 5,108 | 9,675 | 104,565 | 27,749 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 122 | 28,338 | 120 | 3,219 | 19,996 | 2,687 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 42 | 71,668 | 0 | 131 | 0 | 5,552 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,372) | (160,484) | (121) | (8,597) | (49,010) | (28,657) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (151) | (8,803) | (85) | (643) | (7,258) | (3,690) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (25) | 0 | (47) | (194) | (55) | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,478 | 90,861 | 5,021 | 3,737 | 68,099 | 3,586 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 650.0 | 39,677.4 | 1,490.0 | 3,933.8 | 50,073.1 | 6,291.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.35 | 2.29 | 3.37 | 0.95 | 1.36 | 0.57 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.35 | 2.29 | 3.37 | 0.95 | 1.36 | 0.57 | |
| Trading Currency | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |