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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Fair Value | $21.11 - $35.90 | $27.43 |
| Upside | -37.5% - 6.2% | -18.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Feb-24 | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | |
| Revenue | 2,960 | 2,924 | 2,906 | 3,037 | 3,357 | 3,502 | 3,666 | 3,875 | 4,011 | 4,091 | 4,173 | |
| % Growth | 12.7% | -1.2% | -0.6% | 4.5% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 843 | 1,032 | 1,074 | 1,134 | 1,152 | 1,222 | 1,296 | 1,341 | 1,388 | 1,416 | 1,444 | |
| % of Revenue | 28.5% | 35.3% | 37.0% | 37.3% | 34.3% | 34.9% | 35.4% | 34.6% | 34.6% | 34.6% | 34.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,032 | 1,074 | 1,134 | 1,152 | 1,222 | 1,296 | 1,341 | 1,388 | 1,416 | 1,444 | 1,444 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (397) | (399) | (393) | (354) | (378) | (396) | (418) | (433) | (442) | (450) | (495) | |
| EBIT | 634 | 674 | 741 | 798 | 844 | 900 | 923 | 955 | 974 | 994 | 949 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (146) | (155) | (170) | (183) | (194) | (207) | (212) | (220) | (224) | (229) | (218) | |
| NOPAT | 513 | 488 | 519 | 570 | 614 | 650 | 693 | 711 | 735 | 750 | 765 | 730 |
| Capital Expenditures | (480) | (561) | (500) | (514) | (505) | (536) | (518) | (520) | (524) | (521) | (522) | (522) |
| NWC Investment | 50 | (5) | (3) | 20 | 48 | 22 | 24 | 31 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 20 |
| (+) D&A | 177 | 397 | 399 | 393 | 354 | 378 | 396 | 418 | 433 | 442 | 450 | 495 |
| Free Cash Flow | 260 | 319 | 416 | 469 | 511 | 514 | 595 | 640 | 664 | 683 | 706 | 725 |
| % Growth | 23% | 30% | 13% | 9% | 1% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |