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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 9.2x | 8.2x |
| Fair Value | $24.94 - $38.60 | $31.54 |
| Upside | -15.0% - 31.6% | 7.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Feb-24 | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 |
| Revenue | 2,960 | 2,923 | 2,895 | 3,037 | 3,357 | 3,502 | 3,666 | 3,875 | 4,011 | 4,091 | 4,173 |
| % Growth | 12.7% | -1.2% | -1.0% | 4.9% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 843 | 1,031 | 1,062 | 1,133 | 1,152 | 1,222 | 1,296 | 1,341 | 1,388 | 1,416 | 1,444 |
| % of Revenue | 28.5% | 35.3% | 36.7% | 37.3% | 34.3% | 34.9% | 35.4% | 34.6% | 34.6% | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | |
| EBITDA | 1,031 | 1,062 | 1,133 | 1,152 | 1,222 | 1,296 | 1,341 | 1,388 | 1,416 | 1,444 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (397) | (394) | (406) | (354) | (378) | (396) | (418) | (433) | (442) | (450) | |
| EBIT | 634 | 668 | 727 | 798 | 844 | 900 | 923 | 955 | 974 | 994 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (146) | (154) | (167) | (183) | (194) | (207) | (212) | (220) | (224) | (229) | |
| NOPAT | 513 | 488 | 514 | 560 | 614 | 650 | 693 | 711 | 735 | 750 | 765 |
| Capital Expenditures | (480) | (561) | (500) | (514) | (505) | (536) | (518) | (520) | (524) | (521) | (522) |
| NWC Investment | 50 | (6) | (4) | 21 | 48 | 22 | 24 | 31 | 20 | 12 | 12 |
| (+) D&A | 177 | 397 | 394 | 406 | 354 | 378 | 396 | 418 | 433 | 442 | 450 |
| Free Cash Flow | 260 | 319 | 405 | 473 | 511 | 514 | 595 | 640 | 664 | 683 | 706 |
| % Growth | 23% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 1% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | |