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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.6x | 0.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Fair Value | $1.87 - $2.03 | $1.95 |
| Upside | -6.8% - 0.8% | -3.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited | 3808 | SEHK:3808 |
| Wärtsilä Oyj Abp | WRT1V | HLSE:WRT1V |
| AB Volvo (publ) | 0MHW | LSE:0MHW |
| Kirloskar Oil Engines Limited | 533293 | BSE:533293 |
| Cummins Inc. | CMI | NYSE:CMI |
| Weichai Power Co., Ltd. | WEIC.F | PINC:WEIC.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 3808 | WRT1V | 0MHW | 533293 | CMI | WEIC.F | |||
| SEHK:3808 | HLSE:WRT1V | LSE:0MHW | BSE:533293 | NYSE:CMI | PINC:WEIC.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 8.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 0.6% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 21.4% | 12.4% | -0.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.2% | 13.9% | -6.3% | 11.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 5.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 5.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.1% | 6.9% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 6.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.6% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 11.1% | 7.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.6% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 7.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.35x | 1.31x | 1.31x | 2.39x | 1.32x | 0.59x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.5x | 12.2x | 10.7x | 14.3x | 11.9x | 8.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.51x | 1.43x | 1.03x | 1.73x | 1.19x | 0.60x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.35x | 1.31x | 2.39x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.47x | 0.51x | 0.67x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.55x | 0.58x | 0.61x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 216,774 | 216,774 | 216,774 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 119,861 | 126,169 | 132,477 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 33,839 | 33,839 | 33,839 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 153,699 | 160,008 | 166,316 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 10,818.5 | 10,818.5 | 10,818.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 14.21 | 14.79 | 15.37 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.95 | 2.03 | 2.11 | 2.01 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.8% | 1.2% | 5.2% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3808 | WRT1V | 0MHW | 533293 | CMI | WEIC.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 33,082 | 8,695 | 678,695 | 149,857 | 45,045 | 124,281 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 27,278 | 1,550 | 90,903 | 12,795 | 2,264 | 81,047 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,589 | 62 | 22,864 | 0 | 1,889 | 12,358 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,705) | (722) | (254,386) | (54,304) | (7,687) | (23,907) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7,992) | (6) | (3,117) | 0 | (1,037) | (35,660) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 48,252 | 9,579 | 534,959 | 108,347 | 40,474 | 158,120 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,761.0 | 589.1 | 2,033.5 | 145.2 | 137.7 | 10,818.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 17.48 | 16.26 | 263.08 | 746.30 | 293.84 | 14.62 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.64 | 16.26 | 263.08 | 746.30 | 293.84 | 2.01 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | EUR | SEK | INR | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | |