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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 23.0x - 25.4x | 24.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.0x - 11.1x | 10.5x |
| Fair Value | $20.88 - $23.07 | $21.97 |
| Upside | -17.1% - -8.4% | -12.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| K+S Aktiengesellschaft | SDF | DB:SDF |
| Nutrien Ltd. | N7T | DB:N7T |
| Yara International ASA | IU2 | DB:IU2 |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | C4F | DB:C4F |
| Methanex Corporation | MX5 | DB:MX5 |
| Tessenderlo Group NV | TSDO.F | OTCPK:TSDO.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SDF | N7T | IU2 | C4F | MX5 | TSDO.F | ||
| DB:SDF | DB:N7T | DB:IU2 | DB:C4F | DB:MX5 | OTCPK:TSDO.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 4.9% | -6.5% | 13.0% | 25.1% | -19.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -18.8% | -26.2% | -7.5% | -15.6% | -41.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -112.1% | -22.0% | 97.2% | 8.3% | 125.9% | -62.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.6% | 15.1% | 9.0% | 31.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 34.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -1.2% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 29.1% | 11.5% | 1.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.2% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 30.9% | 15.2% | 1.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.75x | 1.61x | 0.85x | 3.02x | 1.24x | 0.60x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 8.9x | 7.2x | 6.8x | 5.7x | 6.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -62.6x | 15.5x | 14.4x | 10.4x | 8.2x | 35.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -62.6x | 10.4x | 15.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.5x | 9.3x | 35.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 23.0x | 24.2x | 25.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 45 | 45 | 45 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,031 | 1,086 | 1,140 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,037 | 1,091 | 1,146 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 60.1 | 60.1 | 60.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 17.26 | 18.16 | 19.07 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 19.42 | 20.44 | 21.46 | 25.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -22.9% | -18.8% | -14.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SDF | N7T | IU2 | C4F | MX5 | TSDO.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,736 | 39,951 | 11,942 | 17,600 | 4,506 | 1,339 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 524 | 895 | 326 | 1,406 | 1,087 | 252 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 271 | 495 | 150 | 33 | 98 | 27 | |
| (-) Debt | (746) | (14,707) | (4,091) | (3,296) | (3,226) | (257) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (4) | (32) | (17) | (2,517) | (296) | (16) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,781 | 26,602 | 8,310 | 13,226 | 2,169 | 1,345 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 179.1 | 487.5 | 254.7 | 162.0 | 67.4 | 60.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 15.53 | 54.57 | 32.62 | 81.63 | 32.19 | 22.37 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.89 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.53 | 48.49 | 28.99 | 72.54 | 28.60 | 25.18 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.89 | |