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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 3.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.7x - 3.0x | 2.8x |
| Fair Value | $3.46 - $3.97 | $3.71 |
| Upside | -11.6% - 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Horizon Oil Limited | HZN | ASX:HZN |
| Karoon Energy Ltd | KAR | ASX:KAR |
| Harbour Energy plc | PQQ0 | DB:PQQ0 |
| Aker BP ASA | AKRBP | OB:AKRBP |
| Vår Energi AS | 0AAY | LSE:0AAY |
| Santos Limited | STOS.F | OTCPK:STOS.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| HZN | KAR | PQQ0 | AKRBP | 0AAY | STOS.F | |||
| ASX:HZN | ASX:KAR | DB:PQQ0 | OB:AKRBP | LSE:0AAY | OTCPK:STOS.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.9% | 243.0% | 21.4% | 30.0% | 21.1% | 5.9% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 20.6% | 65.7% | 21.4% | 29.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -29.0% | -6.0% | 66.0% | -6.9% | 8.7% | -8.6% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 28.9% | -482.6% | 19.6% | 59.7% | 51.2% | 28.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 37.1% | 51.4% | 24.0% | 70.9% | 53.0% | 30.2% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 33.8% | 39.1% | 25.1% | 68.4% | 48.9% | 28.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.5% | 39.1% | 25.1% | 67.0% | 49.7% | 28.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.61x | 1.22x | 1.77x | 1.46x | 1.66x | 3.34x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.1x | 3.1x | 7.0x | 2.2x | 3.3x | 11.6x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.84x | 0.99x | 0.62x | 1.14x | 0.97x | 2.48x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.22x | 1.61x | 1.77x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.72x | 3.34x | 4.30x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.84x | 2.99x | 3.14x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 5,381 | 5,381 | 5,381 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 15,290 | 16,095 | 16,899 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,462) | (4,462) | (4,462) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,828 | 11,633 | 12,437 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,240.2 | 3,240.2 | 3,240.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.34 | 3.59 | 3.84 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.34 | 3.59 | 3.84 | 3.92 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -14.6% | -8.3% | -2.0% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HZN | KAR | PQQ0 | AKRBP | 0AAY | STOS.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 170 | 953 | 10,741 | 18,578 | 12,023 | 17,147 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 47 | 341 | 830 | 4,283 | 661 | 1,833 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 393 | |
| (-) Debt | (24) | (511) | (6,021) | (8,229) | (5,570) | (6,688) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (1,563) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 195 | 783 | 3,994 | 14,632 | 7,115 | 12,685 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,625.3 | 742.4 | 1,691.6 | 631.7 | 2,496.4 | 3,240.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.12 | 1.06 | 2.36 | 23.16 | 2.85 | 3.92 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.65 | 0.65 | 1.12 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.19 | 1.63 | 2.11 | 239.70 | 29.50 | 3.92 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | EUR | NOK | NOK | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.65 | 0.65 | 1.12 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1.00 | |