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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 0.7x - 2.7x | 1.7x |
| Fair Value | $0.11 - $0.17 | $0.14 |
| Upside | -29.4% - 14.2% | -8.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 87,133 | 85,780 | 81,294 | 93,856 | 105,588 | 113,507 |
| % Growth | -6.3% | -1.6% | -5.2% | 15.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| EBITDA | 1,855 | 2,455 | 2,448 | 4,181 | 7,343 | 9,029 |
| % of Revenue | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 2,455 | 2,448 | 4,181 | 7,343 | 9,029 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,863) | (1,351) | (2,191) | (2,465) | (2,650) | |
| EBIT | 591 | 1,097 | 1,990 | 4,878 | 6,379 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (130) | (241) | (438) | (1,073) | (1,403) | |
| NOPAT | 33 | 461 | 856 | 1,552 | 3,805 | 4,976 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,906) | (3,000) | (2,950) | (4,000) | (4,500) | (4,838) |
| NWC Investment | (254) | (58) | (194) | 542 | 506 | 342 |
| (+) D&A | 1,812 | 1,863 | 1,351 | 2,191 | 2,465 | 2,650 |
| Free Cash Flow | (314) | (734) | (937) | 285 | 2,276 | 3,130 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | 699% | 38% | |