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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.3x - 1.4x | 1.3x |
Fair Value | $29.69 - $33.55 | $31.56 |
Upside | 56.3% - 76.6% | 66.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 2,263 | 2,311 | 2,423 | 2,485 | 2,703 | 2,822 | 2,878 | 2,936 | 2,995 | 3,055 | 3,116 |
% Growth | 18.8% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 280 | 432 | 471 | 487 | 534 | 553 | 564 | 575 | 586 | 598 | 610 |
% of Revenue | 12.4% | 18.7% | 19.4% | 19.6% | 19.8% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 432 | 471 | 487 | 534 | 553 | 564 | 575 | 586 | 598 | 610 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (148) | (173) | (176) | (210) | (215) | (219) | (223) | (228) | (232) | (237) | |
EBIT | 284 | 297 | 311 | 324 | 338 | 345 | 352 | 359 | 366 | 373 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (74) | (77) | (81) | (84) | (88) | (90) | (91) | (93) | (95) | (97) | |
NOPAT | 169 | 210 | 220 | 230 | 240 | 250 | 255 | 260 | 265 | 271 | 276 |
Capital Expenditures | (34) | (159) | (196) | (182) | (152) | (148) | (151) | (151) | (150) | (151) | (151) |
NWC Investment | (60) | (8) | (19) | (10) | (37) | (20) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) |
(+) D&A | 51 | 148 | 173 | 176 | 210 | 215 | 219 | 223 | 228 | 232 | 237 |
Free Cash Flow | 126 | 191 | 178 | 214 | 261 | 296 | 313 | 323 | 333 | 342 | 352 |
% Growth | -6% | 20% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |