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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.6x - 1.8x | 1.7x |
| Fair Value | $3.56 - $3.75 | $3.65 |
| Upside | 72.1% - 80.9% | 76.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 1,370 | 1,287 | 1,311 | 1,364 | 1,499 | 1,551 | 1,582 | 1,614 | 1,646 | 1,679 | 1,713 |
| % Growth | -7.1% | -6.1% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 223 | 280 | 301 | 345 | 389 | 403 | 411 | 419 | 427 | 436 | 445 |
| % of Revenue | 16.3% | 21.8% | 23.0% | 25.3% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% | 26.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 280 | 301 | 345 | 389 | 403 | 411 | 419 | 427 | 436 | 445 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (17) | (1) | (19) | (21) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| EBIT | 263 | 300 | 326 | 389 | 400 | 408 | 416 | 425 | 433 | 442 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (37) | (42) | (46) | (54) | (56) | (57) | (58) | (59) | (61) | (62) | |
| NOPAT | 87 | 226 | 258 | 280 | 335 | 344 | 351 | 358 | 365 | 372 | 380 |
| Capital Expenditures | (7) | (66) | (42) | (44) | (51) | (52) | (49) | (50) | (51) | (50) | (50) |
| NWC Investment | 111 | 88 | (25) | (57) | (143) | (56) | (33) | (34) | (34) | (35) | (36) |
| (+) D&A | 122 | 17 | 1 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Free Cash Flow | 313 | 265 | 192 | 198 | 161 | 238 | 271 | 277 | 283 | 290 | 297 |
| % Growth | -28% | 3% | -19% | 48% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | ||