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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.5x | 1.5x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.2x - 1.3x | 1.2x |
| Fair Value | $1.80 - $1.98 | $1.89 |
| Upside | 18.8% - 30.5% | 24.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Coronado Global Resources Inc. | CRN | ASX:CRN |
| Nickel Industries Limited | NIC | ASX:NIC |
| Fortescue Ltd | FMG | ASX:FMG |
| Perseus Mining Limited | PRU | ASX:PRU |
| Stanmore Resources Limited | SMR | ASX:SMR |
| South32 Limited | SHTL.F | OTCPK:SHTL.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| CRN | NIC | FMG | PRU | SMR | SHTL.F | |||
| ASX:CRN | ASX:NIC | ASX:FMG | ASX:PRU | ASX:SMR | OTCPK:SHTL.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.0% | 29.9% | 12.8% | 23.5% | 53.3% | -5.8% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 4.5% | 39.3% | -6.5% | 26.3% | 103.5% | 0.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -13.7% | -7.2% | -11.9% | 11.5% | -14.5% | 36.1% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.3% | 21.8% | 53.3% | 31.2% | 20.1% | 13.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.9% | 16.2% | 47.5% | 39.8% | 28.2% | 4.9% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -4.5% | 8.6% | 46.8% | 45.1% | 11.2% | 1.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -4.5% | 8.6% | 36.3% | 44.5% | 11.2% | 8.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.18x | 0.78x | 1.88x | 2.15x | 0.54x | 1.15x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | -3.9x | 9.0x | 5.2x | 4.8x | 4.8x | 13.1x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.10x | 0.74x | 1.78x | 2.60x | 0.39x | 1.25x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.18x | 0.78x | 2.15x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.89x | 1.33x | 1.35x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.39x | 1.47x | 1.54x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 6,211 | 6,211 | 6,211 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 8,648 | 9,103 | 9,558 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 602 | 602 | 602 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 9,250 | 9,705 | 10,160 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,114.0 | 5,114.0 | 5,114.0 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.99 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.99 | 1.52 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 19.4% | 25.3% | 31.1% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CRN | NIC | FMG | PRU | SMR | SHTL.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 434 | 1,342 | 30,775 | 2,416 | 1,294 | 7,146 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 340 | 211 | 3,409 | 628 | 289 | 1,600 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1,230 | 375 | 67 | 25 | 662 | |
| (-) Debt | (531) | (1,055) | (5,439) | (3) | (672) | (1,647) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (432) | 27 | (205) | 0 | (13) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 243 | 1,297 | 29,147 | 2,903 | 936 | 7,748 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,676.5 | 4,339.9 | 3,074.5 | 1,365.4 | 901.4 | 5,114.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.14 | 0.30 | 9.48 | 2.13 | 1.04 | 1.52 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.23 | 0.48 | 15.07 | 3.38 | 1.65 | 1.52 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 1.00 | |