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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.4x - 6.0x | 5.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.9x - 5.4x | 5.1x |
| Fair Value | $12.95 - $14.31 | $13.63 |
| Upside | 10.0% - 21.6% | 15.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Jet2 plc | JET2 | AIM:JET2 |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| easyJet plc | EZJ | LSE:EZJ |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| IAG | 0H4A | JET2 | CPCA.F | EZJ | RYAO.F | ||
| LSE:IAG | LSE:0H4A | AIM:JET2 | OTCPK:CPCA.F | LSE:EZJ | OTCPK:RYAO.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.0% | -2.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 4.5% | 13.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 193.9% | NM- | 48.4% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.7% | 21.8% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 20.6% | -11.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -9.4% | 0.6% | -6.8% | 12.8% | -13.5% | 11.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 15.1% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 21.6% | 8.9% | 21.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 22.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 20.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.73x | 0.31x | 0.20x | 0.97x | 0.41x | 1.70x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 3.5x | 2.1x | 4.8x | 4.3x | 8.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.2x | 8.1x | 2.7x | 7.7x | 6.3x | 13.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.1x | 4.3x | 4.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -101.5x | 7.5x | 184.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 5.7x | 6.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,802 | 2,802 | 2,802 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 15,215 | 16,016 | 16,816 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 51 | 51 | 51 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 15,266 | 16,067 | 16,868 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,391.0 | 1,391.0 | 1,391.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 10.97 | 11.55 | 12.13 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.35 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 11.77 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.9% | 10.4% | 15.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | IAG | 0H4A | JET2 | CPCA.F | EZJ | RYAO.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,961 | 11,747 | 1,374 | 109,797 | 3,736 | 14,497 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,799 | 8,837 | 3,596 | 10,534 | 3,461 | 2,751 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 234 | 1,156 | 2 | 17,241 | 51 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (17,345) | (14,099) | (1,335) | (68,475) | (3,315) | (2,700) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6) | (49) | 0 | (7) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 16,643 | 7,592 | 3,638 | 69,090 | 3,933 | 14,549 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,734.4 | 1,198.3 | 214.4 | 7,280.9 | 750.9 | 1,391.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.52 | 6.34 | 16.97 | 9.49 | 5.24 | 10.46 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.78 | 1.00 | 0.89 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.97 | 6.34 | 16.97 | 1.22 | 5.24 | 11.77 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | EUR | GBP | USD | GBP | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.78 | 1.00 | 0.89 | |