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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.0x |
| Fair Value | $0.37 - $0.40 | $0.38 |
| Upside | 22.7% - 34.4% | 28.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Sandfire Resources Limited | SFR | ASX:SFR |
| Aurelia Metals Limited | AMI | ASX:AMI |
| St Barbara Limited | SBM | ASX:SBM |
| Pilbara Minerals Limited | PLS | ASX:PLS |
| Focus Minerals Limited | FML | ASX:FML |
| Resolute Mining Limited | RMGG.F | OTCPK:RMGG.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| SFR | AMI | SBM | PLS | FML | RMGG.F | |||
| ASX:SFR | ASX:AMI | ASX:SBM | ASX:PLS | ASX:FML | OTCPK:RMGG.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 17.6% | 1.0% | -19.2% | 96.5% | 89.1% | 11.9% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 15.4% | -9.4% | -32.9% | 92.5% | 327.7% | 13.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 36.6% | 0.4% | -26.3% | -65.1% | 230.8% | 26.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 16.1% | -2.5% | -155.7% | 25.5% | -1840.3% | -5.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | -1.4% | -19.2% | -197.6% | 79.0% | -18.5% | 13.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.3% | 2.0% | -35.8% | 31.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.8% | 9.5% | -37.1% | -0.3% | -16.7% | 5.4% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.26x | 1.06x | 0.39x | 5.87x | 2.45x | 0.68x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 22.0x | 11.1x | -1.1x | -2146.0x | -14.6x | 12.7x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.98x | 1.33x | 1.11x | 6.45x | 0.83x | 0.78x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.39x | 2.45x | 5.87x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 0.68x | 0.99x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.91x | 0.96x | 1.01x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 801 | 801 | 801 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 731 | 770 | 808 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 75 | 75 | 75 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 806 | 844 | 883 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,129.1 | 2,129.1 | 2,129.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.41 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.30 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 27.1% | 33.1% | 39.2% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SFR | AMI | SBM | PLS | FML | RMGG.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,526 | 342 | 110 | 5,368 | 173 | 560 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 196 | 97 | 129 | 1,171 | 7 | 69 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2 | 1 | 26 | 48 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (502) | (8) | (5) | (634) | (121) | (44) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,229 | 431 | 260 | 5,953 | 59 | 634 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 458.7 | 1,691.6 | 1,082.8 | 3,217.9 | 286.6 | 2,129.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.04 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1.85 | 0.21 | 0.30 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.17 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1.85 | 0.21 | 0.30 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |