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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.5% - 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Fair Value | $2.41 - $3.18 | $2.73 |
| Upside | 1.6% - 33.9% | 15.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,138 | 1,150 | 1,188 | 1,230 | 1,251 | 1,242 | 1,242 | 1,242 | 1,242 | 1,242 | 1,242 | |
| % Growth | 13.0% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | -0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 220 | 210 | 218 | 226 | 215 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | |
| % of Revenue | 19.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.4% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 210 | 218 | 226 | 215 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (26) | (27) | (25) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (40) | |
| EBIT | 184 | 191 | 201 | 181 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 173 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (35) | (36) | (38) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (33) | |
| NOPAT | 147 | 149 | 155 | 163 | 147 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 140 |
| Capital Expenditures | (25) | (42) | (41) | (42) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) |
| NWC Investment | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| (+) D&A | 39 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 40 |
| Free Cash Flow | 168 | 134 | 143 | 148 | 139 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 140 |
| % Growth | -20% | 7% | 4% | -6% | -2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | |